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  1. H&I Fires* 8 SEP 2008

    Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. | 8 Sep 2008 | 11:59 pm MDT

    Open post for those with something to share, updated through the day. New, complete posts come in below this one. Note: If trackbacking, please acknowledge this post in your post. That's only polite. ******************************** I swear that when I saw this, I thought I was reading the Onion. "In the press galleries at the convention, journalists wrinkled their noses in disgust when Piper, Ms. Palin’s youngest daughter, was filmed kitty-licking her baby brother’s hair into place." I don't think I really grasped how deep the cultural divide really is until I read this article. It's a perfect example of a media elitist simultaneously getting it and not getting it. Lost amid the Palinmania, interesting news from Waziristan. The real truth about Talihook. And finally, one more that I could've sworn was parody.  You think we've got it bad with the PC police in THIS country? P.S.  I'm actually blogging over at my place again... - FbL ********************************

  2. 2008 Milbloggies

    Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. | 8 Sep 2008 | 6:00 am MDT

    They're finally here! This is the nomination phase, and it's very brief.  All nominations must be submitted online through Milblogging.com by 11:59 pm EST on Wednesday, September 10th, 2008. You have to be registered at milblogging.com, but it's relatively painless and for a good cause. Here are some of my favorite nominations that don't always get the attention they deserve in these kinds of contests (linked at milblogging.com) Kaboom (yes, it's now defunct, it was a great milblog and it falls within the competition dates) Big Tobacco Information Dissemination The Destroyermen The Gun Line Threatswatch SpouseBUZZ Soldiers' Angels Germany (not placed in the correct category. Nominate here). This is an open post, so you can add your own ideas to the list above or in comments below.  Other than that, I don't suppose I have to tell you what to go do, now...  ;)

  3. Blackfive TV: Military Science Fiction Writers Series

    BLACKFIVE | 8 Sep 2008 | 5:05 am MDT

    Despite what some may think, we know that you like to read and that many of you enjoy science fiction. A particular favorite is military science fiction. Blackfive has teamed with Baen Books to provide you with a series of...

  4. Argghhh-onauts: Episode Five

    Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. | 8 Sep 2008 | 4:03 am MDT

    In which our hero discovers that being in a dream sequence does not confer personal immunity from the consequences of somebody else's actions.Gee -- kinda like Real Life, ain't it?...

  5. Oil Prices Fell and OPEC Was Not Amused

    Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. | 8 Sep 2008 | 12:50 am MDT

    Don't get too excited in that $.50 drop in gasoline lately.  OPEC just announed that it will be cutting production "slightly".   Sarah Palin will have OPEC on her "to do" list. Seriously, though this is good and bad.  If prices continued to fall insanely, we could have another oil bust on our hands.  That is not necessarily good for the economy any more than the meteoric rise of oil.  In reality, it wasn't really in OPEC's interests either to have that meteoric rise.  One of the issues there is that the price of oil was making many of those states, who subsidize gasoline to their constituents, considerably less wealthy due to the pay outs. $100/bbl was predicted as the high water marker in 2006.  These predicters don't lie, but they were fudged out a little by the speculators grabbing everything they could.

  6. The Media Folds A Hand

    Winds of Change.NET | 7 Sep 2008 | 10:20 pm MDT

    From the NY Times:

    MSNBC tried a bold experiment this year by putting two politically incendiary hosts, Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews, in the anchor chair to lead the cable news channel’s coverage of the election.

    That experiment appears to be over.

    After months of accusations of political bias and simmering animosity between MSNBC and its parent network NBC, the channel decided over the weekend that the NBC News correspondent and MSNBC host David Gregory would anchor news coverage of the coming debates and election night. Mr. Olbermann and Mr. Matthews will remain as analysts during the coverage.

    The change - which comes in the home stretch of the long election cycle - is a direct result of tensions associated with the channel’s perceived shift to the political left.

    "The most disappointing shift is to see the partisan attitude move from prime time into what’s supposed to be straight news programming," said Davidson Goldin, formerly the editorial director of MSNBC and a co-founder of the reputation management firm DolceGoldin.

    As Rasmussen notes, the media is getting hammered by the public because of the perception that they are in the tank politically.



  7. 'Yet we still let everybody look at it.'

    Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. | 7 Sep 2008 | 9:01 pm MDT

    This is a “for what it’s worth” story that has been rolling around in the back of my mind ever since I started paying attention to McCain since his clinching the nomination. There are things I disagree with him about; most are disagreements common to “the conservative base.” Unlike some, however, my disagreements are not so deep-seated that I would rather see Barack Obama in the White House. Hoping a third candidate will supplant them both, or voting for an obscure and irrelevant Other, is counterproductive, to say the least. So, the GOP has an imperfect candidate.

  8. Afghan PRT Shows How It's Done

    Winds of Change.NET | 7 Sep 2008 | 8:39 pm MDT

    A while back, "Fort Apache, Afghanistan" discussed the Provincial Reconstruction Teams, who combine civic projects and aid with military force projection. Cuba was way ahead of everyone with this idea, and it's an important one. Many NGOs will not operate in dangerous situations, or will choose to buy their security via collaboration with evil, or will be governed by political or financial rather than humanitarian goals.

    In an era of failed states, that level of reliability won't cut it. NGOs can still play useful roles, but there must be a military option ready to go. PRTs have made solid strides since 2002, and have now become an alliance-wide concept, with other countries like Germany, Spain, Canada, Austraia, et. al. leading PRTs in key areas. It's also a cross-service effort, as this article shows:

    "After two Air Force medical professionals spent some time on the ground in Southeastern Afghanistan, they came to a conclusion -- providing clinical medical care for locals was just a band-aid solution for three major issues plaguing the country. So they made the decision to take a step back and think outside of the box for solutions.... The two were determined to find sustainable, cost efficient ways locals could combat the three largest medical killers in the country diarrhea, malnutrition and childbirth complications."

    They've managed to make a long-term difference in all 3 areas.



  9. A Soldier Speaks as Soldiers Do

    BLACKFIVE | 7 Sep 2008 | 7:15 pm MDT

    A veteran of the Iraq war speaks his mind, in terms that will be very familiar to readers here: of honor, of sacrifice, of nobility of purpose, of lost friends. Hear him out. H/t: my friend and co-blogger at Grim's...

  10. The Mac

    Mudville Gazette | 7 Sep 2008 | 4:22 pm MDT

    Mickey Kaus: McCain's Annoying Little Fraud.I fought for the right strategy and more troops in Iraq, when it wasn't a popular thing to do. And when the pundits said my campaign was finished, I said I'd rather lose an election than see my country lose a war. --McCain's acceptance speech, 9/4/08This bit of history was repeated by the McCain campaign in at least one WaPo group interview I attended--suggesting it's an accepted talking point. It's also bogus. McCain's campaign imploded...

  11. Willie Brown on Palin

    Winds of Change.NET | 7 Sep 2008 | 1:21 pm MDT

    Willie Brown is probably the smartest politician I've ever personally met. I'd pay good money to see him and Karl Rove sit down and chew the fat on the mechanics of politics - there's an Internet TV show idea for someone for free - and today, in the SF Chronicle, he's got his take on Sarah Palin.

    Palin's speech to the GOP National Convention on Wednesday has set it up so that the Republicans are now on offense and Democrats are on defense. And we don't do well on defense.

    Suddenly, Palin and John McCain are the mavericks and Barack Obama and Joe Biden are the status quo, in a year when you don't want to be seen as defending the status quo.

    From taxes to oil drilling, Democrats are now going to have to start explaining their positions.

    Whenever you start having to explain things, you're on defense.

    I used to go watch him at the Alameda County Labor Council's BBQ, where he once finished his speech by exhorting the whole crowd to put their hands up in the air. Then he told them to reach down and take out their wallets. Then to told them to take the wallet from the person on the right, take out a bill, and pass it out to be collected.

    I thought it was a brilliant piece of stagecraft. My GOP friends thought it perfectly summed up Democratic political philosophy.

    BTW, in his column today, he slags my old town, Oakland:

    By the way, there's a new dining tip for people going out in Oakland.

    Be sure to order soup.

    That way when the robbery starts, you can slip off your jewelry and drop it into soup so the robbers won't see it.

    ...zzzzzinnnngggg....



  12. A look into the possible future.

    BLACKFIVE | 7 Sep 2008 | 1:09 pm MDT

    Team “O” completes their DNC and wraps things up…….but one thing they didn’t properly take care of apparently are a few thousand American flags from the convention.

  13. National Security Is Not a Basketball Game, Sen. Obama

    Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. | 7 Sep 2008 | 12:07 pm MDT

    National Security is not a Basketball Game  h/t Ace Nor is asking somebody about whether they are really the mother of their last child or whether they can be Vice President and be a mom, too, "tough questions".  If so, please ask these tough questions of Sen. Obama.  Enquiring minds would like to know how he intends to be a good father when the job of President will likely take him away much more than Vice President.  Unless, of course, he plans to let Joe Biden do all of his work. Speaking of "Split Iraq into three ethnic enclaves", Joe, this is Obama's pick for shoring up his foreign policy creds?  Joe might be on a bunch of committees, but apparently that doesn't make him a brilliant foreign policy man.  Must be why Obama needs 300 foreign policy advisors in addition to Joe.  Speaking of foreign policy, what is Obama proposing to do if Russia refuses to leave Georgia or decides that it does want the Ukraine back or will attack Poland?  What happens if Obama calls up Putin and asks him to stop and Putin tells him to go pound sand and threatens war with the US or its allies?  Is he going to whine to the press that Putin is being mean to him?  Is he going to cry that he "won't be bullied"?  Imply that Putin is racist and just trying to scare everybody because he, Obama, doesn't look like other presidents and has a funny name?  Or he can send out his surrogates and plant stories in the American press that Putin is really a cross dressing sea porpoise.  Ooh, that will really hurt! Maybe he'll consult his 300 foreign policy advisors, make some soaring, empty speech and do nothing, just like he's been doing practically his entire career?  You know why a would be candidate needs 300 foreign policy advisors?  Because he doesn't know anything about it himself and he can't make up his mind! 

  14. It's Sunday...

    Mudville Gazette | 7 Sep 2008 | 10:47 am MDT

    ...so below you'll find today's sermon, reprinted from a post I did at MilBlogs earlier in the week....

  15. Nice Picture, Bad Analysis

    Winds of Change.NET | 7 Sep 2008 | 10:21 am MDT

    In my work life, I follow a lot of blogs about social media; one of them is 'The Network Thinker' (in my Bloglines feeds to the right over in the blogroll).

    There was a post there today by blog author Valdis Krebs on 'bundlers'.

    I downloaded data of the top bundlers of donations for the 2000 and 2004 Bush campaigns and the 2008 McCain campaign. What's the overlap of donors between the Bush and McCain campaigns? Will the same people influence both campaigns/administrations? Or will it be starkly different groups? Or something in between?

    Below is a map of those who donated to BOTH Bush and McCain. The campaigns are shown as the two red nodes on the left of the map. The green links show donations coming into the McCain 2008 campaign. The blue lines show donations coming into the Bush campaigns of 2000 and 2004. The 128 bundlers, who have contributed to both McCain and Bush, are shown in the arc on the right.

    A nice graphic follows, and then the conclusion:

    Most of McCain's 534 large bundled donations [76%] came from donors who did not donate to either of the Bush campaigns. Yet, this kernel of 128 bundlers keeps consistency across all three Republican campaigns in the 21st century.

    The Gang of 128 may not allow McCain to wander too far from the current philosophy and approach. If elected, McCain may be different than Bush, but he might not be that different.

    Even smart people can be stupid sometimes, and even people who do social network data representation and analysis for a living can be misleading.

    So, instead of showing the complete network of bundlers, and highlighting the overlap, Valdis shows only the overlaps - strengthening the conclusion that McCain's campaign is 'more of the same'.

    Instead of looking at the amounts, and giving some idea of how much money the overlap represents - we get nothing.

    And, finally, it would be useful to see how many of the bundlers were also bundling for the other side - as a not-insignificant number of them do.

    I love this kind of data analysis, and get pissed off when it's been done badly. As in this case.

    If I get some time this week, I'll play with this - in fact, let's make it a group project. Can some of you help out by downloading the bundler database from, say Public Citizen into a csv table and sending it my way?

    I'd love to get data from this cycle and '04, for McCain, Bush, Obama, and Kerry...we can look at the overlaps and relative amounts. Any other analysis ideas?



  16. A brain-cleaning post for you

    Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. | 7 Sep 2008 | 8:29 am MDT

    Well, some of us, anyway.  After clicking through on the links at Patterico's place in the post Dusty put up, I need something like a nice clean tank to clear the images. So, some of you fellas were whining about the size of the pic in yesterday's post on the M48. Fine - here's a bigger one. And for those who are going to whine the picture is still too small - click here.

  17. Sorry about that...

    Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. | 7 Sep 2008 | 8:26 am MDT

    I guess I should apologize for the Sully post. I could sense a general frisson of revulsion shudder through our readership and I'll try not to trigger that again. Not for today, anyway. So, here's something for your general SA on energy independence, an effort I was reminded of when Glenn posted this on his site. FWIW, I think there is a highly qualified and experienced member on one of the presidential tickets who would probably be extremely effective in helping us address our immediate needs, but that's just me.

  18. Feminists and Republicans: Strange Bedfellows?

    Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. | 7 Sep 2008 | 4:13 am MDT

    Politics, they say, makes strange bed fellows.  You can't get any stranger than Hillary Clinton Feminists spreading the word to ALL women: vote Palin/McCain...er...McCain/Palin. "If you ever want to see another woman candidate in your life time," goes the meme.  They have a real point.  It's not crazy or somehow treasonous to a political ideology to look for ways to win more women in a campaign.  Women do make up over 50% of the population, over 50% of college students and, women are proportionately represented in the work place, too.  All the politicians try to break the demographics up by ideology, religion, education, ethnicity, marital status and gender.  That last is usually "gender" based on one of the other demographics.  Like Bush and the Soccer "security" moms.  Few, if any, have ever been successful at  appealing to women as their own separate demographic with any universal issue or issues that would drive them in any mass to support a candidate for election. 

  19. And now for something completely different...

    Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. | 6 Sep 2008 | 10:16 pm MDT

    Glute Boy? Oi.

  20. Fnding Strength in Adversity: Ken Walters

    Winds of Change.NET | 6 Sep 2008 | 7:45 pm MDT

    Nortius Maximus sends this tip in:

    "A former engineer who was disabled and living on benefits has turned his life around - after a stroke rewired his brain and turned him into an artist....

    'I hated it in school. I was never really the arty type, more hands on. But I have to say wherever this new found love for art has come from it's certainly changed my life forever. Although I didn't realise it at the time, having a stroke was the biggest blessing in disguise I ever could have wished for."



  21. IA, MND-B Soldiers seize munitions in Baghdad

    Stryker Brigade News | 6 Sep 2008 | 7:03 pm MDT

    Multi-National Division – Baghdad BAGHDAD – Iraqi Army and Multi-National Division – Baghdad Soldiers continue seizing weapons caches in Baghdad Sept. 5. At approximately 9 a.m., while searching a street in the Mansour district of Baghdad, soldiers serving with 1st...

  22. Alaska on a Shoestring

    Mudville Gazette | 6 Sep 2008 | 5:46 pm MDT

    A first hand look at Sarah Palin:In 2003, Gov. Frank Murkowski offered her an appointment to the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. (I advised her not to take the position. She ignored my advice, and took the job anyway.) Shortly after taking her seat on the commission, she noticed that one of her fellow commissioners, Randy Reudrich, was doing political business on state time. Reudrich was (and still is) chairman of the state Republican party. Randy controls the flow...

  23. Eagleton

    Winds of Change.NET | 6 Sep 2008 | 4:17 pm MDT

    So, increasingly deranged (see here and then her) Sully and many of the Netroots crowd are bitterly clinging to the "when will McCain drop Palin" tagline.

    Seriously - and I mean this seriously, as someone who wants Obama to win - how do we get him to drop Biden for Hillary?



  24. Trashed in Colorado

    Mudville Gazette | 6 Sep 2008 | 3:05 pm MDT

    In which we ask the question, "Should Dems give props to the McCain campaign?" Downtown Denver: the cameras roll and the crowd goes wild. Waving American flags, smiling, watching the fireworks - what a show! Then the speech is over. The cameras are turned off. With no more use for them, the American flags and empty coke cups and used kleenex are tossed away - many into trash receptacles, others simply on the ground. Not smart. This, on the other...

  25. Missin' the Mission

    Mudville Gazette | 6 Sep 2008 | 12:16 pm MDT

    Well, that ruffled some feathers. I'm glad to see Republicans energetically defending themselves. Lethargy and malaise are unbecoming in a party during a Presidential campaign. On the political homefront they are indeed the one party that's supported the effort in Iraq from the beginning, and kept it from becoming "another Vietnam", and I think the GOP can take pride in that. I think if the average Republican knew more about the war in Iraq they would certainly do so. The...

  26. Power in Taji

    Stryker Brigade News | 6 Sep 2008 | 7:14 am MDT

    Stars & Stripes also has an article on efforts by the 2-11 FA, 2/25 SBCT to bring more electricity to the Baghdad suburb of Taji. Excerpt: TAJI, Iraq — Residents living around this northern Baghdad suburb have begun complaining about...

  27. NFL Kickoff

    Stryker Brigade News | 6 Sep 2008 | 7:08 am MDT

    According to Stars & Stripes the time difference didn't stop some football fans with the 2/25 SBCT from staying up to watch the first regular season NFL game of season. Excerpt: CAMP TAJI, Iraq — When New York Giants running...

  28. Iraq in Photos

    Stryker Brigade News | 6 Sep 2008 | 7:00 am MDT

    One of my favorite sites is The Big Picture, which selects a particular story from the news and uses high resolution photos instead of words to drive the narrative. Last week the editor compiled a gallery of photos from Iraq...

  29. A Good Take On Hurricane Preparedness

    BLACKFIVE | 6 Sep 2008 | 5:54 am MDT

    Hurricane, earthquakes, and political earthquakes, oh my! There may be flooding in areas not normally prone to it with all the progressive little heads exploding faster than a MoveOn supporter's at a Ted Nugent concert; and, along with real problems...

  30. Russia's Kosovo Precedent

    Winds of Change.NET | 5 Sep 2008 | 5:16 pm MDT

    Russia’s Vladimir Putin darkly hinted that his country would invade and dismember Georgia months before last month’s war in the South Caucasus region began. “We have Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Pridnestrovie [Transnistria],” he said back in February this year after Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, “and they say Kosovo is a special case?” Putin has a point, but only a very small one. The overwhelming majority of Kosovars want nothing more to do with Serbia just as the majorities in Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia want to secede. But there the similarities end.

    Kosovo is a viable nation state of more than two million people, greater in size than its neighbors Montenegro and Macedonia which also broke free of Yugoslavia recently. (Montenegro’s secession from the Yugoslavian rump state of Serbia-Montenegro in 2006 somehow didn’t produce any hand-wringing about a “Montenegro precedent” in Russia or anywhere else.)

    South Ossetia, meanwhile, has a population of around 60,000 people, the size of a small American suburb. Abkhazia’s population is less than 200,000, around the size of a large American suburb. These are not viable nation states.

    Nevertheless, last week Russia recognized them as independent. Unlike Kosovo – which is formally recognized by 46 counties, including all of the G7 – no country in the world other than Russia recognizes the “independence” of Abkhazia or South Ossetia. That’s partly because what really just happened is de facto Russian annexation. Before the invasion and dismemberment of Georgia, Russia made the majority in South Ossetia and Abkhazia citizens of Russia and gave passports to anybody who asked. I just returned from a trip to Georgia, and the Russian military wouldn’t let me enter South Ossetia or even the central Georgian city of Gori because I did not have a Russian visa.

    Read the rest in COMMENTARY Magazine.



  31. Ask an Infantryman -- "HUSBAND SCRATCHES HIS HEAD AT WIFE'S LOVE FOR LINGERIE"

    BLACKFIVE | 5 Sep 2008 | 4:09 pm MDT

    Ernie Pyle wrote: "I love the infantry because they are the underdogs. They are the mud-rain-frost-and-wind boys. They have no comforts, and they even learn to live without the necessities. And in the end they are the guys that wars...

  32. Roundtable: Hurricane Divers!

    BLACKFIVE | 5 Sep 2008 | 4:01 pm MDT

    How'd you like to know what it's like to ride a tactical C-130 into the eye of a hurricane? Read on.

  33. Mayors and Organizers

    Mudville Gazette | 5 Sep 2008 | 3:38 pm MDT

    Glenn Reynolds: "JIM LINDGREN -- WHO LOVES HIM SOME NUMBERS -- DOES AN ANALYSIS and concludes that in spite of the press treatment, Obama's speech included more negative attacks than Palin's." Here's Lindgren's Obama count, and here are his numbers on Palin's speech. He concludes "If one compares Palin’s speech to Obama’s, it appears to me that they used similar amounts of sarcasm (not much), but Obama made considerably more extensive negative comments about McCain and Republican administrations than Palin...

  34. IA, NP, local citizens combine efforts to seize munitions in Baghdad

    Stryker Brigade News | 5 Sep 2008 | 2:58 pm MDT

    Multi-National Division – Baghdad BAGHDAD – Iraqi Army and Iraqi National Police continue seizing weapons caches in Baghdad Sept. 3 and 4. At approximately 5:30 p.m. Sept 3, police serving with the 2nd Battalion, 5th Brigade, 2nd National Police Division,...

  35. 100 Years of Army Aviation

    BLACKFIVE | 5 Sep 2008 | 1:24 pm MDT

    This year marks the 100th Anniversary of Army Aviation. You can go to the Centennial website and here is the link to the Timeline. There's lots of photos and profiles and history.

  36. Balad Air

    BLACKFIVE | 5 Sep 2008 | 9:16 am MDT

    Members of Combined Joint Special Operations Air Component, CJSOAC , from Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron 84, conduct night operations, Balad, Iraq, Aug. 25, 2008. The squadron is the only Navy component of the CJSOAC and has been supporting vital special...

  37. Friday SarahCuda

    BLACKFIVE | 5 Sep 2008 | 8:39 am MDT

    Video highlights of the Governor of Alaska raising blood pressure and striking fear in the hearts of the Obama campaign, Hey didn't McCain speak last night? Actually I have some interesting stories about watching Mcain's speech w/a cafe full of...

  38. Georgia and the Former Soviet Union: Impacts & Options

    Winds of Change.NET | 4 Sep 2008 | 11:20 pm MDT

    Ukranian President Victor Yushchenko discusses recent events in Georgia, in "Georgia and The Stakes For Ukraine." Note especially this quote:

    "The tragic events in Georgia also exposed the lack of effective preventive mechanisms by the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and other international organizations."

    They're only exposed if anyone was stupid enough to believe in them in the first place, against all available evidence. See also Poland's foreign minister, Radek Sikorski:

    "Parchments and treaties are all very well, but we have a history in Poland of fighting alone and being left to our own devices by our allies."

    Russia's actions have even prompted renewed debate in Sweden and Finland about joining NATO. Speaking of Finland, Max Boot makes a very different point. Eastern Europe, including the Ukraine, has the means to defend itself...

    The 2 Approaches

    Ultimately, there are only 2 approaches when one is faced by a larger neighbor or Great Power at one's doorstep, with designs on one's territory or regime.

    Option #1 is acquiescence to its policy demands. Libya is a good modern example of how that doesn't always come out badly. They came clean on a nuclear/biochemical WMD program that was further along than the CIA thought, dismantled it transparently, and openly addressed their previous involvement in terrorist acts. Response: growing integration into the international community, regime still in power - probably with a big infusion of new French military equipment pretty soon.

    If the Great Power is inflexibly predatory, however, as China was with Tibet and Russia has been with Georgia, we come to option #2: making it too expensive for the Great Power or hostile neighbour to force the issue. In other words, deterrence.

    Diplomacy is a viable tool in this regard. Mongolia, for instance, is fated to balance perilously between Russia and China. As the threat from one grows, its best hope is usually to tilt toward the other and hope to play them off. Robert Kaplan's excellent book Imperial Grunts has a whole chapter on American efforts in Mongolia. The USA acknowledges the reality that America can't save Mongolia if it comes to that. So they work to make the Mongolians more capable on their own, while improving ties with other nations via participation in UN peacekeeping missions et. al. That's certainly no guarantee, as Georgia demonstrates, but better something than nothing.

    Note, however, that the tools for option 2 are weighed as (capability x likelihood of capability being used). Which is why Yushchenko's assessment is an absolute killer for the UN or OECD as a solution to any serious security issue. Likelihood of effective response approaches zero. Likelihood of their effectiveness for anything involving Russia? Zero. And any number times zero is... that's right, zero.

    Might as well just admit this up front. Even as we admit that there are no guarantees in international relations.

    Incidentally, that lack of guarantees is why "prevention" as a geopolitical doctrine is a simple impossibility. At some point, in some places, prevention will always fail or break down. What then?

    This leads us to Max Boot's point re: defense expenditures. Singapore, which rightly distrusts its neighbours, spends about 5-6% of GDP on defense as a matter of policy, and uses a total mobilization concept as the core of its defense organization. So, too, do the Israelis. Switzerland spends less on defense these days, but keeps the total mobilization concept. Finland employed a similar model when it bloodied the Soviet Union so badly in the early days of World War 2 that the Russians decided to settle for a lot less (vid. the term "Finlandization"), declare victory, and leave.

    No Guarantees

    There are, of course, no guarantees here. It takes only one to start a fight, and war is a chancy business. Conventional wars are won in part by smart planning, acquisition, and training, but they also frequently turn on chance and unforseen circumstances.

    Those include personalities, which can vary in ruthlessness and determination. Joe Stalin takes a back seat to no-one in that area, but a million or so Russian casualties in Finland gave even Stalin pause. Not that he really cared about a million lives; he killed 20-30 times that many. But he did have all those other countries he had seized during the war. Finland could not be allowed to become a potential problem that would tie up so many Russian troops in perpetuity, and perhaps serve as an example to others. The Finns had raised the stakes high enough to give themselves more options.

    On the flip side, Poland had tried the same thing, from a weaker position. Soviet treachery during the Warsaw Uprising, and massacres of Poles in the Katyn Forest, left the country with little will to resist, and no successes to hang on to. As a result, it was treated like the other East Bloc acquisitions. It would be almost 30 years before Lech Walesa's Solidarnosc organization and a Polish Pope could fan those flames again, under more fortunate external circumstances.

    On the asymmetric side, guerilla insurgencies often fail, despite the romanticism and myth associated with them - unless strongly backed by a capable outside power. And even that offers no guarantees.

    Despite the best co-belligerent efforts of Islamists and the Left on various fronts of the war, for instance, America is now close to victory in Iraq. In large part, this is thanks to its Islamist opponents' essential barbarism. It also stems from the American military's growing understanding that the real terrain it was fighting on was social networks in a pervasively armed society. America also won in the Philippines, the British won in Malaysia and Oman, et cetera. Despite American efforts, the Sandinistas weren't really losing their grip in Nicaragua until their backer the Soviet Union collapsed. Et cetera.

    Russia's victory in Chechnya, in contrast, stemmed from a extremely brutal approach of scorched earth tactics and assassination squads. Russia has used these tactics before, during the Basmachi revolts in Central Asia in the 1920. They worked then, and the just worked again. In between, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles probably did more than anything else to derail a similar campaign that was succeeding in Afghanistan. As part of a more strictly internal campaign, Guatemala has won with the same kinds of tactics during the 1970s and 1980s. Nor are they alone in doing so successfully.

    As I say, insurgencies can fail. Sometimes, they fail for internal reasons. Sometimes, the other side is simply ruthless and determined enough to crush them.

    I keep hammering on this, because so few people understand it. There are no guarantees in the field of human conflict. Only a set of fuzzy "Schrodinger's percentages" that live within broad limits, and truly coalesce only when put to a test.

    Defense and the Economy

    Not that plans for guerilla warfare are useless. Pre-planning for a total mobilization concept can indeed raise the stakes. Max Boot's suggestion re: having lots of anti-tank rockets and portable anti-air missiles in Russia's neighbors would indeed increase the danger factor for Putin, by creating a pool of sophisticated weapons that could be taken and used in a crisis. Stocking them is also relatively cheap, so it's possible to increase a country's deterrent capability with a quick jump.

    Boot is not wrong, therefore; but he isn't wholly right, either.

    Shoulder-fired rockets and missiles are not sufficient on their own. For instance, Russian armies have always put a lot of emphasis on artillery, and it isn't the modern American approach of "GMLRS rocket fired from 50 miles away takes out an al-Qaeda safe house, while leaving its next-door neighbours standing." It's more like the rolling carpet/ corridor clearance approach used in Grozny, and by the Americans themselves during urban fighting in World War 2. Unlike Afghanistan, many of Russia's neighbours have terrain that's well suited to this approach.

    Solutions to that kind of problem tend to involve alliances, necessarily backed by more conventional forms of local military power. Buying that backup requires money.

    This was a problem for Finland in 1939, whose troops referred to their obsolete equipment as "Model Cajander" after the idiot Prime Mister who cut military funding in the 1930s. Fortunately, they could all ski cross-country, and had the option of sucking in their enemy and attacking during the winter snows. But their "Winter War" was a full conventional army battle with a lot of commando-style operations, not an insurgency.

    Right now, Boot points out that Bulgaria is one of just 4 NATO states with GDP% defense expenditures over 2% (USA near 4%, Britain and France near 2.5%, Bulgaria just above 2%). Most of western Europe is near or below 1%, actually, while Eastern Europe is usually in the 1.5-2% region.

    Clearly, that won't build a deterrent. Problem is, if you're Bulgaria, even 4% would be limited in terms of what it buys. Would it help? Yes. 10 years from now? Well, it depends. To create credible deterrents for the long term, these countries need money in their economies, as well as a higher budgetary priority for defense.

    That's true now. It will become more true later.

    The Future Threat

    Russia under Putin is and will be a predator state. Period. The bad news is, its combination of resources and successful leverage in its own geographic back-yard means it's going to have lots more money to spend on weapons and other tools of predation.

    The good news is that it has a whole arms industry to rebuild first, because it lost almost all of its engineers in the 1990s collapse. Once orders go away, people find new jobs, and you rarely get them back later. Especially since oil & gas are more attractive careers for Russian engineers these days. But Czar Putin I intends to rebuild that industry over the next decade, in a country where his intention is effectively law. He will do so, and the budgets to catalyze and take advantage of that rebuilding are beginning already.

    For Eastern Europe, therefore, and for larger Central Asian neighbours like Kazakhstan, growing their economies must also be a long term priority, so that they'll still be able to keep pace a decade from now.

    Personally, I thought that given their history with Russia, the Ukranians were crazy to give up the nuclear weapons on their territory after the USSR collapsed. That would have been the complete equalizer, right there. But they did it, and it's water under the bridge. Mr. Yushchenko will have to do this the hard way instead. If he can.

    If I was the Ukraine, I'd definitely be looking at boosting the defense budget right now, especially around the anti-tank and anti-air missiles their Soviet legacy industries already make. I'd also diversify my foreign suppliers with a particular focus on finding some Turkish firms and partnerships to deal with, and make separate deals that would add modern diesel-electric submarines with ship-killing missiles as an asymmetric conventional threat.

    Longer term, however, Ukraine's prosperity requires integration into Europe's industrial and agricultural markets. If you've ever seen pictures, you'll understand why the Ukraine has been Europe's bread basket for centuries - and also how hard Stalin must have worked to starve 6-7 million Ukranians, while the NY Times covered it up. That trade income will be needed to keep pace with a resource-rich Russia, and ensure Ukranian independence over the long haul.

    So, yes, spend some more on defense, as Max Boot suggests, and make the case to your people as to why. After all, "Model Cajander" stuff won't cut it when push comes to shove, just as the UN and lies about a mythical "international community" will provide zero protection against Russia.

    Even so, Viktor Yuschenko's most important initiative for the Ukraine may not be NATO membership (which looks very doubtful) - but EU membership. In his case, it's also (to quote James Carville) "the economy, stupid".

    Which is why American policies that recognize this element via bilateral free trade agreements with countries like Poland, the Ukraine, et. al. are just as important as any military aid or equipment we may choose to send.



  39. I'd Rather Fight...

    Winds of Change.NET | 4 Sep 2008 | 10:06 pm MDT

    Commenter metrico suggests that I'm setting up for a public switch from Obama to McCain in the hopes of an Instalanche (dude, I'm not nearly that cheap...). I kind of liked my reply, so thought I'd promote it:

    hey, metrico - bite me. That's all the answer your insult deserves.

    It's kinda funny - I get about a dozen emails a week from R's who push me to come over to their side - they make arguments, suggestions, and at worst gently mock me. I get about as many from the D side - who want me to get the hell out of their party and make that desire really really clear.

    I'm kind of reminded of the line from 'High Fidelity':

    "Oh, I'm sorry, I didn't know it was classified information. I mean, I know we don't have any customers, but I thought that was a bad thing, not like, a business strategy."
    I always thought the goal was to grow the party and win elections by big margins, not purify it in the cleansing fire of our righteousness.

    Obviously, metrico, we ought to belong to different parties. I suggest you leave.

    A.L.



  40. Things You Can See And Things You Can't

    Winds of Change.NET | 4 Sep 2008 | 9:42 pm MDT

    Josh Marshall, approvingly quoting the Boston Globe:

    One of the most enduring taboos in American politics, the airing of graphic images from the September 11 attacks in a partisan context, died today. It was nearly seven years old.
    The informal prohibition, which had been occasionally threatened by political ads in recent years, was pronounced dead at approximately 7:40 CST, when a video aired before delegates at the Republican National Convention included slow-motion footage of a plane striking the World Trade Center, the towers' subsequent collapse, and smoke emerging from the Pentagon.

    The September 11 precedent was one of the few surviving campaign-season taboos. It is survived by direct comparisons of one's opponents to Hitler.

    Josh Marshall, 2004...

    Now, I have a degree of ambivalence about this question of media coverage of the fallen soldiers coming back to Dover. For many opponents of the war there is an unmistakable interest in getting these photographs before the public in order to weaken support for the war. There's no getting around that. I don't mean to imply that most who want these pictures out believe that, or even that that's an illegitimate goal. And there's a long record of governments managing bad news during wartime to keep up civilian morale.

    But one needn't oppose the war to find something morally unseemly about the strict enforcement of the regulations barring any images of the reality behind these numbers we keep hearing on TV. There is some problem of accountability here, of putting on airs of national sacrifice and not having the courage to risk the real thing, some dark echo of the Rumsfeldian penchant for 4th generation, high-tech warfare where data transfers and throw weights replace bodies at every level.

    I've never understood how one thing could be OK and the other not...but maybe I'm dense that way.



  41. Republicans and War

    Mudville Gazette | 4 Sep 2008 | 8:27 pm MDT

    I know many Republicans dislike South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham. Maybe that explains the tepid response he's getting at the Republican National Convention. Or maybe it's what he's talking about: Iraq - and American troops in Iraq. As the cameras span the crowd through obvious applause lines I'm hearing polite smatterings thereof, and seeing folks chatting on cell phones or amongst themselves. Waiting for the main event, no doubt. They did perk up and cheer a bit more when he...

  42. Democrat Response to Palin Speech

    Mudville Gazette | 4 Sep 2008 | 5:58 pm MDT

    Over on NPR's web site they've posted the Obama response to Sarah Palin's speech. There's no additional commentary from anyone at NPR, just the text:Obama Camp Response to Palin Speech From Obama spokesman Bill Burton:The speech that Governor Palin gave was well delivered, but it was written by George Bush's speechwriter and sounds exactly like the same divisive, partisan attacks we've heard from George Bush for the last eight years. If Governor Palin and John McCain want to define 'change'...

  43. In the UK - "Soldiers and Dogs - Stay off the Grass!"

    BLACKFIVE | 4 Sep 2008 | 2:54 pm MDT

    Another story at the Times UK about a wounded corporal who was denied a hotel room because he serves his country. The last graph in the story is the money quote (thanks to people like you).

  44. MND-B Soldiers seize munitions caches in Baghdad

    Stryker Brigade News | 4 Sep 2008 | 8:13 am MDT

    Multi-National Division – Baghdad BAGHDAD – Multi-National Division – Baghdad Soldiers seized munitions while conducting operations to increase security Sept. 3 and 4. At approximately 9:30 a.m. Sept. 3, Soldiers serving with Company C, 1st Battalion, 21st Infantry Regiment, 2nd...

  45. Two Warriors Achieve New Levels of Responsibility in Careers

    Stryker Brigade News | 4 Sep 2008 | 8:07 am MDT

    By Maj. Al Hing, 2/25 SBCT PAO CAMP TAJI, Iraq – One Warrior was promoted to the rank of lieutenant colonel and a fellow Warrior was promoted to chief warrant officer five, the highest level of warrant officer, in front...

  46. Warrior Transforms Minds, Bodies Into Steel

    Stryker Brigade News | 4 Sep 2008 | 8:04 am MDT

    By Sgt. Whitney Houston, 2/25 SBCT CAMP TAJI, Iraq – The vibrant and multi-talented Soldier leads many Soldiers to reach their full potential through instruction and example. It is his mission, as an Army combatives instructor for his battalion, to...

  47. Surge of Ignorance

    Mudville Gazette | 3 Sep 2008 | 6:11 pm MDT

    ..that's the title of this post at Volokh Conspiracy, a round up of NY Times quotes on the surge. But in reading a few of the comments, I'm surprised at how few people know much of anything at all about our last two years in Iraq. On the up side, most are saying exactly that in their comments - "I don't know" vice stating some political talking point as fact. Update: This could help - The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics,...

  48. Fred Thompson's Speech at RNC

    Mudville Gazette | 3 Sep 2008 | 6:10 pm MDT

    For those who may have missed it....

  49. Soldier-skateboarder Grinds in Iraq

    Stryker Brigade News | 2 Sep 2008 | 11:39 am MDT

    By Sgt. Brad Willeford, 2/25 SBCT CAMP TAJI, Iraq – A native of Port Huron, Mich., he has come a long way from his days of skate boarding, playing football and working at a local home improvement store. An avid...

  50. Wolfhound Pup Fights Terrorist Activity

    Stryker Brigade News | 2 Sep 2008 | 11:35 am MDT

    By Pfc. John Ahn, 2/25 SBCT CAMP TAJI, Iraq - Known as “Havoc,” he is the youngest Soldier in his company and is affectionately known as the company “pup.” Havoc’s real name is Pfc. Robert Hatala, and he is a...

  51. America Should Pick Georgia Over Russia

    IRAQ THE MODEL | 23 Aug 2008 | 11:35 am MDT

    Mohammed's piece on today's Wall Street Journal; The war between Russia and Georgia -- and particularly what Russia aspires to gain from this showdown -- may have future consequences for the situation in the Middle East. It may also have the potential to alter the existing world order and restore a condition somewhat similar to what we had in the Cold War era. A recent statement by Russian

  52. Up the Ante Diplomacy: US and Poland go for Euro-Anti-Missile

    Austin Bay Blog | 14 Aug 2008 | 3:35 pm MDT

    This via AP: Poland and the United States reached an agreement Thursday to base American missile interceptors in Poland, the prime minister said, going ahead with a plan that has angered Russia and threatened to escalate tensions with the region’s communist-era master. Speaking in an interview televised on news channel TVN24, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the [...]

  53. UPDATED: Texas Hold’em versus Russian Roulette = The New Eastern Front? Let’s explore an alternative military option

    Austin Bay Blog | 13 Aug 2008 | 4:59 pm MDT

    Follow my blog posts and this week’s newspaper column and it’s clear that I’m looking at the diplomatic mid-term and long-term for resolution of the Russo-Georgia War. However, this morning I had “one of those conversations” about US and Western European military options—in the gym. Hey, these chats are occurring in defense ministries, in State Departments, [...]

  54. UPDATED: More on the Russo-Georgia Aftermath

    Austin Bay Blog | 13 Aug 2008 | 7:36 am MDT

    Via StrategyPage. This week’s column. Also see this StrategyPage update on the GSSOP (Georgia Sustainment and Stability Operations Program). UPDATE: Hat tip Instapundit. A comprehensive post from CharlesCrawford.biz which concludes with this thought: Does the objective correlation of forces favour those leaders who in a pre-modern way have a clear sense of what they want - and are [...]

  55. More on the dire diplomatic aftermath of Russo-Georgia War

    Austin Bay Blog | 12 Aug 2008 | 3:54 pm MDT

    As I write this post news reports claim Russian troops have halted their main attack just short of Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital. Perhaps Russian memories of the battle for the city of Grozny, Chechnya, play a role. In late 1994 the Russians attempted to drive Chechen rebels from Grozny, and failed miserably. The city fight became [...]

  56. And a nice review from Michael Barone

    Austin Bay Blog | 12 Aug 2008 | 3:25 pm MDT

    The inimitable Michael Barone reviews the “convergence media” presentation of my interview with General David Petraeus. I appreciate the generous words.

  57. Two Short Book Reviews: Winkler’s “Nexus”, Nichols “Eve of Destruction”

    Austin Bay Blog | 10 Aug 2008 | 3:29 pm MDT

    NOTE: I will eventually turn this post into a column. I have been intending to review Nichols’ book since March. I got to read Winkler’s book in galley and got a copy in the mail ten days ago. Two books published this year admirably reflect history renewed and history pending, Jonathan Reed Winkler’s Nexus: Strategic Communications [...]

  58. UPDATED: Russia’s Invasion of South Ossetia: The Kosovo Precedent In Play?

    Austin Bay Blog | 9 Aug 2008 | 7:51 pm MDT

    Consider the looming diplomatic argument. If protecting Kosovar Albanians elicits a NATO invasion, as it did in 1999, and in the case of South Ossetia Russian peacekeepers operating under international aegis were already on the ground and involved in the Georgia-South Ossetia conflict (which they were), what is the gripe? After Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of [...]

  59. British Deal With al-Sadr Betrayed Iraqi People

    IRAQ THE MODEL | 8 Aug 2008 | 2:57 pm MDT

    The news about a secret deal between the British and anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr did not come as a surprise to us. Britain’s war policy has been clear for the past several years: the country demonstrated no readiness to make sustained efforts in a prolonged war, nor did it act as a serious partner determined to win the conflict. There are three aspects in this British betrayal. First,

  60. Terror Connects to Crime In Iraq: Analysis by General David Petraeus

    Austin Bay Blog | 6 Aug 2008 | 9:27 pm MDT

    Quick note: TheArenaUSA’s convergence media program featuring the entire interview with GEN Petraeus went on-line a short time ago. The response to the various Arena “beta” programs has been gratifying and thank you– the Korea backgrounder and the Over The Horizon: The Evolving Food Crisis seem to have been particularly well received. Thank you. [...]

  61. Turkey’s Constitutional Court Fines AKP

    Austin Bay Blog | 6 Aug 2008 | 9:09 pm MDT

    I know this post comes a bit late. It’s old news by now: Turkey’s Constitutional Court did not ban the Justice and Development Party (AKP), it fined the AKP. The “judicial coup” did not occur. The AKP was accused of undermining Turkey’s secularist institutions. While working on an update for StrategyPage I read through a [...]

  62. UPDATE 2: An Interview With General David Petraeus

    Austin Bay Blog | 5 Aug 2008 | 8:35 pm MDT

    I do not think there is any question that at this moment in time General David Petraeus is one of America’s most widely respected leaders –in or out of uniform. I had the privilege of speaking with the soldier-scholar at length this past Monday, August 4. Both my ArenaUSA channel and PajamasMedia will be [...]

  63. Iraq Requests to Buy $11 Billion Worth of American Arms

    IRAQ THE MODEL | 1 Aug 2008 | 4:20 pm MDT

    For the last few years, Iraq has been working to build its new armed forces with invaluable American support. In the course of the process Iraq purchased large amounts of arms and equipment from the US. But a tendency towards getting eastern bloc arms was evident, largely due to decades of dependence and familiarity with such arms. This trend seems to be changing fast recently. From time to

  64. Talabani Rejects the Provincial Election Law

    IRAQ THE MODEL | 24 Jul 2008 | 12:04 pm MDT

    Disagreement erupted between the parliament and presidency council over the provincial elections law. After the parliament passed the law with 127 votes out of 140 that attended the session, president Talabani and VP Adbul Mahdi rejected the law and returned it to the parliament for revision. The key point of disagreement is an article that provides guidelines for the future of Kirkuk.

  65. Obama's Fact-Fudging Mission in Iraq

    IRAQ THE MODEL | 22 Jul 2008 | 10:24 am MDT

    Obama arrived in Iraq on Monday for what is described as a fact-finding mission. However, it’s hard to believe Obama is actually searching for facts in Iraq, nor will the facts he finds change his position. The position he chose for himself, as well as all the comments he has made so far about Iraq, reflect a disregard for facts, and there is no reason to expect a change now. This visit, for

  66. In the Midle East, Diplomacy = Weakness

    IRAQ THE MODEL | 21 Jul 2008 | 10:07 am MDT

    In a matter of just a few days several important developments have taken place in the Middle East, all likely to have negative repercussions on the already tense situation in the region. The first development was the awkward prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah. Then there were the unprecedented decisions by the American administration to take part directly in negotiations with Iran

  67. Najaf tribes to compete against religious parties in provincial elections

    IRAQ THE MODEL | 19 Jul 2008 | 3:53 pm MDT

    A large coalition of tribes in Najaf conferred and made a decision similar to that by the Anbar tribes last week. In televised interviews, tribal chiefs said they will join forces with technocrats and enter the upcoming provincial elections in slates independent from existing religious parties. The sheiks voiced their frustration with the outcome of previous elections in which religious parties

  68. IAF using Iraqi airspace?

    IRAQ THE MODEL | 11 Jul 2008 | 6:36 pm MDT

    The IDF and Iraq’s defense ministry deny that Israeli air force is using Iraqi airspace to prepare for attacks on Iran. The claim is obviously part of Iran’s propaganda campaign which is based on deterrence through threats to expand the war. After all, to travel the 200 miles that separate Iraq’s most southern territory from Bushehr in five minutes means that aircraft will have to fly at the

  69. Anbar tribes to enter politics

    IRAQ THE MODEL | 11 Jul 2008 | 1:14 pm MDT

    The Anbar Salvation Council announces plan to nominate candidates for the upcoming provincial elections and accuses the Islamic Party of plotting electoral fraud: Chief of the Anbar Salvation council sheik Hameed Hayis announced the formation of “The Democratic Bloc of Anbar” that will enter the upcoming provincial elections in November and later general elections in 2009. Hayis said the

  70. Iran sends "sticky IEDs" to terorists in Iraq

    IRAQ THE MODEL | 11 Jul 2008 | 11:47 am MDT

    First, it was flying IEDs...Now, sticky IEDs Iraqi newspaper Al-Madad reports: The government is taking measures to prevent assassinations by magnetic IEDs that militant groups have been using to target members of security forces, judges and civilians. A source in the government said the cabinet asked all state officials to take utmost caution and to constantly inspect their vehicles before



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